Researchers identify 44-metabolite panel that enhances prediction beyond traditional risk factors in study of more than 23,000 participants.


Researchers have developed a blood-based metabolomic signature that could improve prediction of type 2 diabetes risk beyond traditional clinical factors, according to a new study published in Nature Medicine.

The research team from Mass General Brigham and Albert Einstein College of Medicine analyzed blood samples from 23,634 individuals across 10 prospective cohorts with up to 26 years of follow-up. Participants were initially free of type 2 diabetes and represented diverse ethnic backgrounds.

Using metabolomic analysis, researchers examined 469 metabolites in blood samples alongside genetic, diet, and lifestyle data. Of these metabolites, 235 were associated with higher or lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes, including 67 newly discovered associations.

“We found that diet and lifestyle factors may have a stronger influence on metabolites linked to type 2 diabetes than on metabolites not associated with the disease,” says Jun Li, MD, PhD, assistant professor of medicine and associate epidemiologist in the Mass General Brigham Department of Medicine and co-corresponding author, in a release. “This is especially true for obesity, physical activity, and intake of certain foods and beverages such as red meat, vegetables, sugary drinks, and coffee or tea.”

44-Metabolite Signature Shows Predictive Value

The research team developed a signature of 44 metabolites that improved prediction of future type 2 diabetes risk. The metabolites associated with the disease were also genetically linked to clinical traits and tissue types relevant to diabetes pathology.

Li notes that specific metabolites may act as potential mediators, linking dietary and lifestyle factors with type 2 diabetes risk. The study provides evidence that these factors influence disease development through metabolic pathways.

“Our study is the largest investigation of blood metabolic profiles associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes that integrates genomic and diet and lifestyle data from a wide range of people, and lays important groundwork for future studies,” says Qibin Qi, PhD, professor in the Department of Epidemiology & Population Health at Albert Einstein College of Medicine and senior co-corresponding author, in a release.

Clinical Validation Needed

While the findings offer insights into diabetes risk prediction, researchers emphasize that additional experimental studies and clinical trials are needed to confirm causality and clarify how metabolic pathways contribute to disease development.

The collaborative research team plans to continue investigating biological pathways behind diabetes development with the goal of helping develop more targeted prevention strategies for high-risk individuals.

“A better understanding of the biological pathways behind disease can help drive the development of new treatments,” says Li in a release. “Our findings lay the groundwork for a deeper understanding of type 2 diabetes and may help inform the development of precision preventive strategies targeting specific metabolic pathways.”

The study was supported by grants from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, and other National Institutes of Health institutes.

Type 2 diabetes accounts for more than 90% of diabetes cases worldwide, with the disease continuing to rise globally as a major metabolic health challenge.

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