The European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Disease (ESCMID)—an organization that explores risk assessment, knowledge sharing, and best practices in the fight against infectious diseases—has warned that Britain and Europe collectively could face more than a million deaths in an impending “antibiotic Armageddon” unless more is done to develop new cures, rapid diagnostics, and preventive measures to combat the spread of drug-resistant diseases.
ESCMID experts issued the warning ahead of the society’s annual conference at the end of April, adding that without reductions in the inappropriate use of existing antibiotics, and more money being spent on developing new drugs, deaths across Europe could pass the grim milestone of a million by 2025. In Britain alone an estimated 10,000 people die each year from drug-resistant diseases, and experts at ESCMID fear this number could triple, or even quadruple, within the next 10 years.
The best available assessments of the impact of antimicrobial resistance were published in 2009, and estimated that approximately 25,000 to 30,000 Europeans die each year due to antimicrobial resistance, making the total number of deaths now more than 400,000. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) will make 2013 figures available later this year.
Murat Akova, ESCMID.
However, due to new outbreaks with almost impossible-to-treat microorganisms, ESCMID predicts that the true mortality rate is almost certain to have risen significantly. Furthermore, ESCMID predicts that within the next 10 years, annual deaths in Europe could top 50,000 per year. The global position is even more critical: by the year 2050, deaths per year are projected to rise to 10 million, surpassing major killers such as cancer, diabetes, and road traffic accidents.
“The worrying aspect for Europe is that there is clearly a huge risk, particularly across some of the Mediterranean states,” says Murat Akova, ESCMID president. “However, no one really knows just how big the problem currently is, let alone how big it’s going to become in the future.
“Although we could see European national numbers remain broadly the same, it is far more likely to double, treble, or even quadruple in the next 10 years. The other major problem is that bacteria do not respect country boundaries, so we are likely to see highly resistant microbes spreading out from nations with a more severe problem,” adds Akova. “We need both European-wide and global strategies, as well as national initiatives, as the problem will not remain regionalized for long.”
The worst affected nations in Europe are Greece, Spain, and Italy, which are facing an imminent antibiotic Armageddon, as an increasing number of bacteria within these countries are now resistant to most or all forms of known antibiotics.
ESCMID cautions that this condition is not simply a result of the lack of new antibiotics, but is being exacerbated by poor monitoring and control of the drug supply, and insufficient infection control in many hospitals and institutions. Worryingly, the implications of this change extend far beyond just a rising death toll, as it is fundamentally jeopardizing modern healthcare, with costs rapidly increasing, and therapies and hospital stays being prolonged.
The estimated global economic costs associated with the rise of antimicrobial resistance total $100 trillion, potentially resulting in a significant reduction in GDP of approximately 6% across all countries, with the poorest countries projected to experience the largest relative loss of GDP. The economic cost in Europe is already approximately €1.5 billion and rising.
“Deaths in the UK alone could very easily triple over the next 10 years,” says Akova. “But focusing only on the death toll from antimicrobial resistance obfuscates the gigantic problem of not being able to offer patients many of the modern healthcare victories. The rapid increase in antimicrobial resistance in Europe and the world is jeopardizing modern healthcare. And resistance is spreading to the UK from across other European nations.”
ESCMID believes it is vital that governments and the pharma community continue investing in the development of new antibiotics, and that healthcare providers should increase implementation of infection prevention and control strategies. Improved education and training are needed, especially to preserve the utility of existing antibiotics through prudent use and antimicrobial stewardship.
