Two Midwestern author/scientists have bet $500 million on whose aging theory will win out in 2150.
Researchers S. Jay Olshansky of the University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health and Steven Austad of the University of Idaho have a difference of opinion about who has the most accurate scientific view of aging. Austad bet that someone will live to be 150 years old by 2150, while Olshansky bet that 130 years is the end of the road for a human life span.
The wager coincides with the publication of Olshansky’s book, The Quest for Immortality: Science at the Frontiers of Aging. Austad, a University of Idaho zoology professor is the author of, Why We Age: What Science Is Discovering About the Body’s Journey Through Life.
Olshansky concedes it may be possible for the human body to reach the age of 130, but “beware what we wish for, because surviving to such extreme ages without significant changes to the rate at which we age would produce a world filled with fraility and disability.”
Biomedical technologies promise a better than even chance that at least one person will survive to be 150 years old by 2150, Austad believes. “We will live longer because cloning technology, combined with stem cell research, is likely to allow the growth of replacement parts (organs and tissues) in the not too distant future,” he said. “We are now understanding the fundamental process of aging, such as oxygen radical damage, well enough that pharmaceuticals and perhaps gene therapy to combat aging are likely within the next couple of decades.
The winner will be decided on Jan. 1, 2150, by three scientists, chosen by the president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The scientists will rely on standard forms of identification such as a birth certificate, marriage license or some other verified documents.
The half-billion dollar payout for the winner’s heirs will be the culmination of a trust fund started with matching $150 contributions this year. Sometime next century, the winners and the world may know if human life expectancy can be unrelentingly compounded by biomedical knowledge, like interest in the fund, or if there is an unyielding ceiling.
Coleen Curran, Editor
